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LM: #285: Black and white and gray
Just because you expect it to fail doesn’t mean you shouldn’t build it.
There are three kinds of projects: white swans, black swans, and gray swans.
Black swans have little chance of succeeding. You’re not sure why you’re building it, who it’s for, or how it will turn out.
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White swans are nearly certain to succeed. You know exactly why you’re building it, for whom, and how it will turn out.
Gray swans mix together elements of white and black swans. It fits into a clear category, but you’re adding a twist.
If white swans are nearly certain to succeed, why not just build white swans? Here’s why:
Black swans are nearly destined for failure, but there’s a tiny chance they’ll succeed beyond your wildest dreams. White swans are likely to succeed, but their potential is limited. Gray swans aren’t as assured of success as white swans, but more so than black swans, yet with more potential than white swans.
White swans fit right into a category. Black swans create new categories. Gray swans are a twist on an existing category.
The white swan is your how-to book. The black swan is your impassioned manifesto, free on ebook. The gray swan is your conceptual self-help book.
The white swan is your corporate training video. The black swan is your immersive choose-your-own-adventure project. The gray swan is your experimental horror flick.
The white swan is your freelance Oracle database consulting. The black swan is your whimsical AI experiment. The gray swan is your SaaS with a few more features than the competitors.
The projects you’re most sure will succeed often have the most mediocre potential. So choose wisely.
Book: Good Work (Amazon) is Paul Millerd’s exploration in redefining work and reclaiming your inner ambition.
Cool: Motion built what we were trying to build at Timeful: an AI-driven calendar that plans your tasks around your schedule.
Best,
David
P.S. The graphic above is from my upcoming book, How to Sell a Book. This week is your last chance to preorder for 10% off.
