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LM: #351: New Year’s estimates (not resolutions)
New Year’s resolutions are destined from the start to fail.
How could you possibly decide how many subscribers you’re going to gain, or weight you’re going to lose?
Even if you stick with what you control, how could you go from not doing a behavior at all to doing it regularly? You don’t even know what it’s like and you and the world will change within the year.
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It’s like trying to hit a moving target with an arrow made from a wet noodle.
This is why I prefer New Year’s estimates, not resolutions. Such as:
- I’m 20% sure I’ll gain 1,000 Substack subscribers
- I’m 60% sure I’ll publish an hour of content on YouTube
- I’m 70% sure I’ll finish my manuscript
You don’t have the information to say what will happen, or what goals will still be worth striving towards. By making an estimate, you give yourself a chance to respond to reality.
There’s also something about making estimates that makes you think about reality: Resolutions are aspirational. By saying this will definitely happen, you paradoxically shut yourself off from the factors that will affect whether it does.
As you think about whether something is 50%, 70%, or 90% doable, you start to think about what’s actually affecting your ability to make it happen, which often leads to thinking of actions you can take to increase your odds.
Aphorism: “The present of things past is memory; the present of things present is sight; and the present of things future is expectation.” —Saint Augustine
Book: Paul Millerd’s $100 Pathless Path Hardcover is quite beautiful, and an inspiring publishing experiment.
Best,
David
P.S. Making and reflecting on estimates is a key tactic in my upcoming book, Finish What Matters. There’s still time to start reading the Preview Edition.
